| INTRODUCTION | | | | disasters. With proper planning, including |
| | | | proper environment management, much of the |
| Coastal zone is defined as "the coastal | | | | risk can be reduced. The risks posed by |
| waters (including the lands therein and | | | | natural hazards in United States are |
| thereunder) and the adjacent shorelands | | | | exacerbated by social and environmental |
| (including the waters therein and | | | | trends such as rapid urbanization and |
| thereunder), strongly influenced by each | | | | unplanned human settlements, poorly |
| other and in proximity to the shorelines of | | | | engineered construction, lack of adequate |
| the several coastal states, and includes | | | | infrastructure, poverty, and inadequate |
| islands, transitional and intertidal areas, | | | | environmental practices such as deforestation |
| salt marshes, wetlands, and beaches." | | | | and land degradation. |
| Coastal locations were some of the first | | | | |
| settled in the country, and have always | | | | Given the significant costs of the nation's |
| accounted for a major percentage of the | | | | catastrophic natural disasters, focus has |
| overall population. They were the primary | | | | shifted in recent years to expand beyond |
| centers for transportation, tourism, | | | | emergency preparedness and response to |
| recreation, commercial fishing, and other | | | | include a more long-term emphasis on disaster |
| industry. This coastal zone remains a | | | | loss reduction. Hence it requires for a |
| crucial segment of the nation's overall | | | | quantitative assessment of natural hazards |
| economy. A variety of natural hazards | | | | vulnerability for coastal zone. This |
| regularly threaten this coastal zone. Severe | | | | quantitative assessment of natural hazards is |
| meteorological events such as hurricanes, | | | | aimed to minimize either an individual's or a |
| tropical cyclones, and nor'easters are | | | | community's vulnerability to future disaster |
| particularly harsh on coastal areas, often | | | | damages. Over the years, progress has been |
| resulting in damages from high winds, storm | | | | made in reducing hazard impacts through |
| surge, flooding, and shoreline erosion. | | | | better predictions, forecasts, and warnings, |
| Tsunamis, whose destructive force is | | | | particularly for meteorological hazards such |
| characterized by potentially devastating | | | | as coastal storms and floods. General |
| flood inundation, are uniquely coastal events | | | | improvements in hurricane and tsunami |
| resulting from offshore earthquakes, | | | | prediction, and river and lake level |
| landslides, or volcanic activity. Coastal | | | | forecasting, have been possible using the |
| locations are also subjected to the impacts | | | | latest in computer modeling technology. |
| of long-term hazards such as chronic coastal | | | | NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS) is |
| erosion, potential sea-level rise, and global | | | | currently working with several new |
| climate change. | | | | technological systems that are intended to |
| | | | significantly improve future flood |
| Coastal hazard events can significantly | | | | forecasting capabilities. Though there were |
| affect or even alter the natural environment. | | | | lot of techniques available to assess |
| Their impacts are generally not considered | | | | vulnerability due to natural hazard |
| to be "disastrous" unless they involve | | | | quantitatively still it is necessary to |
| damages to human populations and | | | | acknowledge the scientific and technological |
| infrastructure. When people and property are | | | | information needs throughout the various |
| not present, hazards are merely natural | | | | hazards-related disciplines and integration. |
| processes that alter the environment. When | | | | Although significant progress has been made |
| people and property is present then the | | | | in the research and science associated with |
| impacts of hazards are viewed quite | | | | natural hazards during the past 20 years, and |
| differently. The primary focus is no longer | | | | improvements in technology and understanding |
| on the natural processes associated with a | | | | about natural hazards and how to access its |
| major hazard event, but instead on the | | | | vulnerability quantitatively requires a |
| disastrous results that can be measured by | | | | real-time networked scientific database. |
| lives lost, property damages, and economic | | | | |
| and environmental impacts. | | | | Universities and research institutions |
| | | | (particularly the National Science |
| The impacts of natural hazards are becoming | | | | Foundation), along with government agencies |
| increasingly costly and devastating. Hazard | | | | such as NOAA and USGS that maintain |
| impacts on the natural environment become | | | | scientific hazards-related responsibilities, |
| more devastating because human development | | | | have contributed to advances in the |
| has altered the ability of natural systems to | | | | scientific study of natural hazards. There |
| recover from such events. Experts believe | | | | is now more quantitative information |
| that the statistics on disaster losses | | | | available about the origins and behavior of |
| continue to rise worldwide due to a | | | | hazard events but the concept of integration |
| combination of factors that include a rise in | | | | of the available data sets is lagged. |
| the number of hazard events due to global | | | | |
| climate change or natural cyclical trends, | | | | This study is to integrate all the fields |
| and an increase in human exposure in | | | | acting in coastal zone for the assessment of |
| hazardous locations. | | | | vulnerability. Maps delineating hazard-prone |
| | | | areas at national, state, and local levels |
| Some of the decrease in disaster damages | | | | are needed to provide more comprehensive |
| worldwide could also be the result of | | | | hazards assessment using information on a |
| improvements in disaster monitoring and | | | | variety of natural phenomena, including |
| reporting capabilities, particularly in | | | | coastal storms, floods, tsunamis, hurricanes, |
| developing countries. But disaster loss | | | | typhoons, landslides, wildfires, drought, |
| increases in the United States seem to be | | | | earthquakes, etc. Much of this information |
| most closely tied to increased human exposure | | | | already exists, but issues such as data |
| in high risk areas such as the nation's | | | | integration, compatibility, scales, accuracy, |
| coasts. | | | | and resolution need to be addressed to make |
| | | | the information useful at the local level. |
| The United States has an expansive and | | | | Better methodologies and models are also |
| diverse coastline that supports a | | | | needed for conducting hazard vulnerability |
| disproportionate percentage of the nation's | | | | assessments that can incorporate highly |
| population. The nation's 451 coastal | | | | variable local conditions and |
| counties contain just over 50 percent of the | | | | characteristics. This calls for the site |
| U.S. population, yet only account for about | | | | specific models for better estimates. |
| 20 percent of the total U.S. land area. | | | | |
| During the last decade, 17 of the 20 fastest | | | | Computer-based geographic information systems |
| growing counties were located along the | | | | could be used to analyze hazards information |
| coast. In addition, 19 of the 20 most | | | | and provide national risk assessment data to |
| densely populated counties in the nation are | | | | state and local governments in quick and easy |
| coastal counties. These coastal counties | | | | manner. Specific models could be generated |
| possess economic gain through natural | | | | by using the GIS software. New |
| resources, maritime trade and commerce. | | | | high-resolution remote sensing capabilities |
| These coastal counties also possess economic | | | | could be examined for use in large-scale risk |
| loss due to the natural hazards, | | | | and vulnerability assessment. Hence, remote |
| overexploitation and exponential population | | | | Sensing and GIS is to be intergrated and |
| growth. An assessment of both the economic | | | | modeled for the assessment of quantitative |
| gain and economic loss is briefly discussed | | | | natural hazard vulnerability. |
| as follows. | | | | |
| | | | Improvements in monitoring, data collection, |
| Economic gain in U.S. coastal zone | | | | and data processing account for most of the |
| | | | advancements made in short-term |
| Nature article (May 1997), a group of | | | | weather-related forecasting. Better modeling |
| ecologists estimated the value on ecosystem | | | | capabilities, along with a more thorough |
| in the coastal zone. They estimated that the | | | | understanding of variables, such as global |
| worth of the services for marine ecosystems | | | | climate change and sea-level rise, are needed |
| is approximately $21 trillion per year. | | | | to improve long-range forecasting and |
| According to Sea Technology magazine, the | | | | planning for coastal hazard impacts. |
| value of goods and services sold by the ocean | | | | |
| marine industry was estimated in 1995 as $60 | | | | GIS integration / modeling for natural hazard |
| billion annually. Offshore oil and gas | | | | vulnerability |
| production has become very important and the | | | | |
| 1996 value was more than $8 billion and the | | | | GIS is one of the powerful tools which can be |
| annual offshore production is increasing. | | | | used for the assessment of Natural Hazards |
| According to the National Oceanic and | | | | Vulnerability (NHV). Due to these |
| Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 77 million | | | | techniques, natural hazard mapping and |
| pounds (meat weight) of shellfish were | | | | vulnerability assessment could be performed |
| harvested from U.S. coastal waters in 1995, | | | | for the coastal zone. These maps will help |
| with a dockside value of $200 million. | | | | the authorities for quick assessment of |
| | | | potential impact of a natural hazard and |
| Current NOAA estimates concerning the | | | | initiation of appropriate measures for |
| recreational uses of U.S. coastal areas | | | | reducing the impact. This data will help the |
| includes: approximately 94 million people | | | | planners and decision-makers to take positive |
| boat and fish annually; the average American | | | | steps in time. |
| spends 10 recreational days on the coast each | | | | |
| year; The coasts (excluding the Great Lakes | | | | GIS applications in the coastal zone are |
| coastline) support 25,500 recreational | | | | diversified and case-based. Applications |
| facilities; More than 180 million Americans | | | | studies such as (a) coastal mapping, (b) |
| visited ocean and bay beaches in 1993; | | | | environmental monitoring, (c) coastal process |
| Recreational fishing contributes $13.5 | | | | modelling, (d) navigation and port facilities |
| billion annually to the U.S.economy; Coastal | | | | management, (e) coastal environmental / |
| recreation and tourism generate $8 to $12 | | | | hazard assessment, (f) coastal management / |
| billion annually. | | | | strategic planning, and (g) coastal |
| | | | ecological modeling could be done through |
| Economic loss in U.S. coastal zone | | | | GIS. |
| | | | |
| Disaster losses in the United States coastal | | | | Coastal Mapping is mainly focused on thematic |
| zone are currently estimated conservatively | | | | mapping in the coastal zone, such as mapping |
| at $50 billion annually. The disaster loss | | | | chlorophyll concentration using TM data (Chen |
| between 1975 and 1994 is estimated as $500 | | | | et al. 1996). Environmental monitoring is |
| billion. 80 percent of the losses were | | | | one of the routine tasks in CZM, which |
| imposed by meteorological events and 10 | | | | include monitoring water quality and habitat |
| percent were the result of earthquakes and | | | | biodiversity, and beach watch. Coastal |
| volcanoes. A great earthquake (magnitude 8 | | | | processes modeling of physical environment |
| or larger) has not struck a major | | | | change in the coastal zone includes the |
| metropolitan area since the 1906 San | | | | simulation of effects of sea-level rise (Ruth |
| Francisco earthquake. An extreme or | | | | and Pieper 1994, Grossman and Eberhardt 1992, |
| catastrophic hurricane (Class 4 or 5) has not | | | | Zeng and Cowell 1998, 1999, Hennecke 2000), |
| directly struck a major urban area since the | | | | the assessment of human intervention of |
| one that hit Miami, Florida, in 1926. Yet | | | | shoreline change (Huang et al. 1999), the use |
| even without such disasters, which might | | | | of historical data to predict future |
| create losses well over $100 billion, the | | | | coastline change (Sims et al. 1995) and the |
| overall costs of natural hazards, such as | | | | study of beach morphodynamics (Humphries and |
| extreme weather, drought, and wildfires, are | | | | Ligdas, 1997). There are another two |
| estimated at $54 billion per year for the | | | | subcategories of the applications of hazards, |
| past 5 years, or approximately $1 billion per | | | | namely, short-term and long-term tasks. The |
| week. In the United States, the direct costs | | | | former is exemplified with monitoring and |
| to repair the damage average about $20 | | | | predicting oil spill (Belore, 1990), while |
| billion per year, of which over $15 billion | | | | the latter is demonstrated by coastal hazard |
| is due to tornadoes, hurricanes, floods and | | | | vulnerability assessment due to climate |
| earthquakes. | | | | change (Lee et al. 1992, Sims, et al., 1995; |
| | | | Deniels et al. 1996, Hickey et al. 1997, Zeng |
| The FEMA coastal erosion study conducted by | | | | and Cowell 1999, Hennecke et al. 2000, Esnard |
| The Heinz Center for Science, Economics and | | | | et al. 2001). Coastal management / strategic |
| the Environment estimates that approximately | | | | planning involve assessing sustainability of |
| 25 percent of homes and other structures | | | | the environment, social and economic |
| within 500 feet of the U.S. coastline and the | | | | viability. The above said studies carried out |
| shorelines of the Great Lakes will fall | | | | in coastal zone are to be integrated using |
| victim to the effects of erosion within the | | | | remote sensing and GIS for analysis. |
| next 60 years. Especially hard hit will be | | | | |
| areas along the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico | | | | The categories of GIS applications in coastal |
| coastlines, which are expected to account for | | | | zone could be broadly categorized into three |
| 60 percent of nationwide losses. The report | | | | levels.a) Level 1: as data management and |
| estimates that costs to U.S. homeowners will | | | | mapping tools,b) Level 2: as basic data |
| average more than a half billion dollars per | | | | analysis (query) and mapping tools, andc) |
| year, and that additional development in high | | | | Level 3: as decision-supporting tools |
| erosion areas will lead to higher losses. | | | | (modelling / simulation). |
| Thirty-four floods have been reported in Wake | | | | |
| County (data source: NDCD and SHELDUS). The | | | | Most current implementations of Coastal GIS |
| total coastline of mapped shoreline of Gulf | | | | are still at Level 1 and Level 2. It is |
| of Mexico coast is about 8058 km out of which | | | | expected that Level 3 implementations will |
| 3387 kms is in very high risk, 1056 kms is in | | | | rapidly increase in the near future as the |
| high risk, 2968 km is in moderately risk and | | | | continuing improvement in GIS functions and |
| 547 kms is in low risk category due to sea | | | | more user-friendly interface become available |
| level rise. So the 42 % of the coast line is | | | | in the market. Hence for the study of |
| in high risk, 37 % moderate risk and 8 % low | | | | Quantitative Assessment of Natural Hazard |
| risk (Robert Thieler et.al. 2001). | | | | Vulnerability Level 3 application is to be |
| | | | adopted. |
| Hurricane Mitch, one of the most powerful and | | | | |
| damaging storms experienced in Central | | | | The two basic approach / analysis, which |
| America, struck between 26 October and 1 | | | | should be followed for geospatial database |
| November 1998. A Category V hurricane, the | | | | development were given below. |
| event was characterized by intensive rainfall | | | | |
| and high winds, dumping a year's worth of | | | | Integrated approach:a) integration of |
| precipitation in less than one week on the | | | | different level of application,b) integration |
| region, causing the overflow of rivers, | | | | of vector and raster (data and functions),c) |
| floods, mudslides and landslides. Thousands | | | | integration of knowledge of different |
| of people were killed and left homeless. | | | | expertise, andd) integration of different |
| Mitch caused billions of dollars of damage, | | | | scales in time and space. |
| and left huge tasks of reconstruction, | | | | |
| resulting in the loss of decades of | | | | Because of the nature of integration, GIS |
| development efforts in the region. | | | | applications should consider long-term |
| | | | integration. This includes the vertical |
| The Economic Commission for Latin America and | | | | integration that involves different |
| the Caribbean (ECLAC) estimates that the | | | | application (and potential) levels, and |
| direct cost of replacing the lost and damaged | | | | horizontal integration that involves other |
| infrastructure in the region after Hurricane | | | | interest groups. Therefore, issues must be |
| Mitch is some US$5,000 million (Caballeros, | | | | addressed from database design, data sharing |
| 1999). | | | | to tool-making (analysis functions) and |
| | | | experience sharing. |
| Recent large-scale disasters such as | | | | |
| Hurricane Mitch and Georges, and the | | | | Multi-criteria analysisa) multi - factors |
| earthquake in Armenia, Colombia have | | | | controls |
| demonstrated the vulnerability of society. | | | | |
| It is widely recognized that recent | | | | Since coastal system has a complex |
| population growth, rapid urbanization and the | | | | hierarchical structure with multi-forcing |
| socioeconomic structure in Central America | | | | exerting on each of subsystem, no mater which |
| have increased vulnerability of these | | | | aspect of the system to be investigated, |
| countries to natural hazards. | | | | multi-variable analysis is an essential |
| | | | methods in the coastal environment.b) multi - |
| These disasters faced by the inhabitants both | | | | discipline approach for decision Other than |
| by natural and anthropological effects lead | | | | the multi-factors, there are multiple |
| to the formation of legislation / laws to | | | | interest groups of coastal community, |
| govern. | | | | therefore, good solutions to any coastal |
| | | | issues can only be derived from |
| Legislation & major acts in U.S. Coastal Zone | | | | multidiscipline approach. |
| | | | |
| The economic loss and economic yield as such | | | | Output of the analysis |
| felt by the inhabitants of the Earth has | | | | |
| resulted in the formation of legislation. | | | | I. Historical and real-time information with |
| This legislation is framed for the | | | | respect to natural hazards will be gathered |
| sustainable use of the available natural | | | | by satellite remote sensing, aerial |
| resources. When the loss is severe or the | | | | photographs and by other conventional means |
| gain is enormous; the laws needs some | | | | and integrated with GIS RDBMS. This results |
| revision hence they were amended | | | | in an extensive geo- database. |
| periodically. Some of the Laws and Acts | | | | |
| pertaining to U.S. coastal zone were National | | | | II. Through the modeling technique and by |
| Environmental Policy Act, Clean water Act, | | | | using the GIS RDBMS we can evaluate the |
| Marine Protection, Research and Sanctuaries | | | | likelihood of experiencing specific natural |
| Act, Ocean Dumping Act of 1972, Water | | | | hazard in the future, and an estimation of |
| Resources Development Act of 1996, Coastal | | | | intensity and probable level of impact. |
| Zone Management Act of 1972, Marine Mammal | | | | |
| Protection Act of 1972, Magnuson-Stevens | | | | Each natural hazard will be evaluated for |
| Fishery Conservation and Management Act of | | | | three characteristics: |
| 1976 Endangered Species Act 1973, Nation wise | | | | |
| Invasive Species Act of 1996, Oil Pollution | | | | 1. Likelihood of Occurrence, i.e., expected |
| Act of 1990, Comprehensive environmental | | | | frequency; |
| response, compensation, and liability act of | | | | |
| 1980, Rivers and Harbor Act of 1899, The | | | | 2. Likely Range of Impact, i.e., predictable |
| Submerged Lands Act of 1953, The Fish and | | | | size and location of impact; and |
| Wildlife Coordination Act of 1934, Land and | | | | |
| Water Conservation Fund Act of 1965, Outer | | | | 3. Probable Level of Impact, i.e., estimated |
| Continental Shelf Lands Act, Resource | | | | strength and damage potential. |
| Conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 and The | | | | |
| Coastal Barriers Resources Act of 1982. | | | | III. The level of severity of natural hazards |
| | | | will be quantified in terms of the magnitude |
| Hence in order to amend these laws the | | | | of the occurrence as a whole (event |
| integration in different fields is attempted | | | | parameter) or in terms of the effect the |
| and discussed as follows. | | | | occurrence would have at a particular |
| | | | location (site parameter). |
| RESULTS AND DISCUSSION | | | | |
| | | | IV. For quantitative natural hazard |
| Assessment of Natural Hazard | | | | vulnerability, some weight value has to be |
| | | | added to the attribute column (slope, |
| Natural hazard is a phenomenon which occurs | | | | subsurface geology, current action, wave |
| in proximity and poses a threat to people, | | | | action, meterology, wind action etc). The |
| structures or economic assets and may cause | | | | values that will be given in the attribute |
| disaster. They are caused by meteorological, | | | | columns could be calculated with the help of |
| biological, geological, seismic, | | | | the equation 1 modeled in GIS environment. |
| hydrological, or conditions or processes in | | | | |
| the natural environment. Hazard assessment | | | | Natural hazard = (Wgeology + Wslope + Wwind + |
| is the process of estimating, for defined | | | | Wmeteo + Wsiesmisivity |
| areas, the probabilities of the occurrence of | | | | |
| potentially - damaging phenomenon of given | | | | + Wgeomorphology + Wetc…) (1) |
| magnitudes within a specified period of time. | | | | |
| Hazard assessment involves analysis of | | | | Based on the above formula, natural hazard |
| formal and informal historical records, and | | | | vulnerability values could be retrieved by |
| skilled interpretation of existing | | | | clicking on any land parcels from the coastal |
| meteorological, topographical, geological, | | | | zone map. Such kind of values will have no |
| geomorphologic, hydrological, and land-use | | | | meanings for the end users. To make the |
| maps. | | | | result more acceptable, a separate domain is |
| | | | to be created in which the resultant values |
| Office of United Nations Development Relief | | | | will be divided into three classes: very |
| Organization (UNDRO), defines the term | | | | high, high, moderate and low hazard areas |
| vulnerability as: "The degree of loss to a | | | | |
| given element or set of elements at risk | | | | Weights Class: |
| resulting from the occurrence of a natural | | | | |
| phenomenon of a given magnitude. It is | | | | Values below than 30 Low hazard Area |
| expressed on a scale from 0 (no damage) to 1 | | | | |
| (total damage)". The vulnerability of an | | | | Values between 30-40 Moderate Hazard Area |
| element is usually expressed as a percentage | | | | |
| loss (or as a value between 0 and 1) for a | | | | Values between 40-50 High Hazard Area |
| given hazard severity level. The measure of | | | | |
| loss used depends on the element at risk, and | | | | Values between 50-60 Very High Hazard Area |
| accordingly may be measured as a ratio of the | | | | |
| numbers of persons killed or injured to the | | | | V. Hazard mitigation plan is to be developed |
| total population, as a repair cost or as the | | | | and it will possess these five steps - |
| degree of physical damage defined on an | | | | |
| appropriate scale. In a large number of | | | | • identification of natural hazards |
| elements, like building stock, it may be | | | | that could impact the community, |
| defined in terms of the proportion of | | | | |
| buildings experiencing some particular level | | | | • assessment of the community's |
| of damage. | | | | vulnerability to natural hazards, |
| | | | |
| Assessment is an interdisciplinary process | | | | • assessment of the community's |
| under-taken in phases and involving | | | | capability to respond to a natural disaster, |
| on-the-spot surveys and the collation, | | | | |
| evaluation and interpretation of information | | | | • assessment of the community's current |
| from various sources concerning both direct | | | | policies and ordinances that affect hazard |
| and indirect losses, short- and long-term | | | | mitigation, and |
| effects. It involves determining not only | | | | |
| what has happened and what assistance might | | | | • development of hazard mitigation |
| be needed, but also defining objectives and | | | | strategies that can be implemented to reduce |
| how relevant assistance can actually be | | | | future vulnerability. |
| provided to the victims. It requires | | | | |
| attention to both short-term needs and | | | | VI. By using all the above factors site |
| long-term implications. | | | | specific models for the assessment of natural |
| | | | hazard vulnerability could be generated using |
| The United States is becoming more vulnerable | | | | GIS for U.S. coastal zone. This will serve |
| to natural hazards mostly because of changes | | | | as an input for further amendment of |
| in population and national wealth density. | | | | legislation concerned with U.S coastal zone. |
| Due to this, people and infrastructure have | | | | |
| become concentrated in disaster-prone areas. | | | | CONCLUSION |
| Natural Hazards threaten the sustainable | | | | |
| development of United States, destroying | | | | U.S. coastal counties possess economic gain |
| years of development efforts and investments, | | | | through natural resources, maritime trade and |
| placing new demands on society for | | | | commerce and economic loss through natural |
| reconstruction and rehabilitation, and | | | | hazards, overexploitation and exponential |
| shifting development priorities away from | | | | population growth. About 80 percent of the |
| long-term goals while immediate needs are | | | | losses were by meteorological events and 10 |
| met. For most of the 20th century, the | | | | percent were by earthquakes and volcanoes. |
| United States has largely spared the expense | | | | Hence in order to minimize the loss due to |
| for catastrophic natural disaster. | | | | natural hazard a computer based geospatial |
| Significant progress has been made in | | | | database methodology is adopted for natural |
| understanding the various impacts that | | | | hazards information retrieval and to provide |
| hazards produce on human and natural | | | | national risk assessment data to the state |
| environments. Numerous research activities | | | | and local governments. Site specific models |
| have been undertaken following the major | | | | were proposed for U.S. coastal zone by |
| hazard events of the past few years. | | | | integrating GIS software and high-resolution |
| Unfortunately, much of this research is | | | | remote sensing to quantify the large-scale |
| piecemeal and has not been incorporated into | | | | risk and vulnerability. This modeling study |
| any type of comprehensive database on | | | | could also be applied to developing countries |
| disaster losses. | | | | such as India, Pakistan, Srilanka etc. for |
| | | | the natural hazard vulnerability assessment |
| Natural hazards such as hurricanes and | | | | in their coastal zones. |
| earthquakes do not have to become natural | | | | |